While national headlines tend to focus on layoffs, automation, and uncertainty in white-collar work, far less attention is paid to how America’s storefront businesses are actually feeling.
These are the barbers, coffee shops, repair shops, and independent retailers that still form the backbone of local economies – and whose day-to-day reality often looks very different from corporate America’s.
To understand how confident these businesses feel heading into the next couple of years, we surveyed over 3,000 storefront owners across U.S. cities and ranked Main Streets based on outlook and resilience.
Here is what we found:
Key Findings:
Confidence appears to happen where business feels personal, not scalable
Many of the cities that appeared high in the ranking share something profound – they are part of local economies that rely heavily on human presence i.e. businesses that in order to succeed need to provide quality service and have solid reputations. These are places where success comes from being known, not optimized. That may explain why owners feel calmer about the future – their value isn’t built on systems that can easily be replaced.
Florida’s high rankings isn’t about tourism alone
Florida cities appear frequently near the top of the rankings, but it’s not just beach traffic driving confidence. Cities like West Palm Beach, St. Petersburg, Gainesville, and Tallahassee all combine steady local demand with seasonal or institutional anchors. It is this combination that gives business owners confidence year-round – if one group dips, another can fill the gap.
Mid-sized, walkable cities consistently are more confident
One obvious trend is that mid-sized cities, such as Buffalo, Syracuse, Alexandria, Savannah, Charleston (SC) are among the most confident ahead of 2026. In contrast, larger, more complex cities often feel more vulnerable to change. For Main Street owners, fewer moving parts may actually feel safer — simpler rent structures, shorter commutes, and customers who still shop close to home.
College towns are among the most confident
Universities in cities such as Ann Arbor, Madison (WI), College Station, Denton, and Fort Collins consistently bring churn, but also predictability: new students each year, steady employment, and built-in demand. Even when broader economic sentiment dips, these places offer a sense of continuity that small businesses seem to value.
California isn’t homogenous
No state appears more often — on both ends of the ranking — than California. Oceanside, Pasadena, Huntington Beach, Santa Rosa, and Anaheim rank confidently, while Modesto, Pomona, Stockton, Salinas, San Bernardino, and Santa Ana sit near the bottom. The difference doesn’t appear to be “California vs. not,” but rather who your customers are. Lifestyle-driven, discretionary spending areas feel resilient; price-sensitive, high-cost markets feel fragile.
Southern confidence and fragility
Likewise, the South is a region of contrasts when it comes to Main street business confidence. This hints at a divide between tourism, education, or service-anchored economies and places where infrastructure challenges or uneven demand weigh more heavily on daily operations.
Rust Belt resilience shows up in unexpected ways
Rust belt cities such as Buffalo, Akron, Cincinnati, and Grand Rapids, contrary to what would be expected, appear resilient and confident in 2026. These are cities that have already adapted to long-term economic change. For owners who have survived past downturns, today’s uncertainty may feel familiar – and therefore manageable.
Final Thoughts
Taken together, the rankings suggest that Main Street confidence isn’t about optimism in the abstract. It’s about predictability. Business owners feel strongest where demand is steady, relationships are durable, and success still depends on showing up – not scaling up.
Across the country, the core principles that underpin confidence look remarkably similar: trust, routine, human connection, and a belief that customers will keep choosing local, despite the emergence of AI.
